Pranab aerobatics in US India Nuclear slush

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Dr. Biplab Pal, Editor Fosaac.TV, 27 March, 2008

US diplomatic and business circle were quite upbeat about maiden visit of India's foreign minister, Shree Pranab Mukherjee. Whenever I met any of them, I was extremely cynical and foresaw nothing except status-quo maintained over the impasse. On Tuesday morning, Mr Minister made it crystal clear. Indeed if we replay the set of events from historic Manmohan-Bush declaration in March 2006 to Pranab's visit this week, it would be more than clear that the deal has lost its steam thanks to leftist opposition in India.

Let recapitulate Feb, 2007. Manmohan was confident that he will sail over the leftists opposition just on the merit of civilian agreement and prosperity of India that needs environment friendly nuclear energy to meet growing industrial demand. However, he is not a seasoned politician-just a handpicked bureaucrat who is yet to learn hard-ball mudsling. Prakash Karat saw opportunity of his life time in opposing the deal—this man was no where to be found in Indian media in the horse and buggy days of comrade Jyoti Basu and HarkishenSingh Surajit who were pragmatic leftist leaders with their political experience of six decades. After the retirement of Basu and Surajit duo, entered the era of Prakash Karat-a left ideologue from Oxford who has never fought a single election but managed to be at the helm of party affair by bullying ideologist comrades behind him. I remember when Prakash was instrumental in axing Jyoti Basu's power by not allowing him to be Prime Minister in 1996, Jyoti Basu was furious and predicted that this brand of ideologue comrades would not only be the problem of the Leftist coalition but they are ominous to India's future as well. His apprehension was so unmistaken!

As soon as Manmohan faced opposition from Prakash Karat, Mr Prime minister stood firm to his point. At this point, despite the threat of the leftists, Manmohan won his first round because he called his good leftist friend Buddhadeb (CM of West Bengal) and told him that his state West Bengal would be a loser because of Prakash's ideological stand. This worked-Karat was silenced by the request of Buddhadeb-they made a truce of keeping quiet. But Prakash understood if Manmohan is allowed to lead the deal, he would be a loser. He desperately needed to replace Manmohan from the deal. So he demanded a political committee to review the deal. His demand was fair but ulterior motive was to bring Pranab Mukherjee in the picture who is paralyzed against the leftists and America because his constituency Jangipur is from a Muslim dominated area of West Bengal, which is a red fortress. Now the point to be asked-- why Sonia handed over this political committee to Pranab? Well, firstly Pranab is the person Sonia trust the most and for a good number of reasons. And foremost, leftists demanded Pranab as a mediator because Mr Mukherjee has always been a good friend to Indian leftists. Remember leftists wanted him to be President of India this time. Actually this deal made Pranab more powerful than Prime Minister because he ascended to be the most acceptable politician of the coalition and Mr Prime Minister since then didn't speak much on N'deal realizing he does not have popular political support to act and behave like a true Prime minister.

Prime minister announced the deal in DC and it was a prestige issue to him as well. That's why he was ready to sacrifice for the deal. For Pranab, there is nothing to lose if the deal does not go through-indeed he may face problem in election if he tries to peddle too much of pro-Americanism given the fact he won from a seat with 60% Muslim population. There is no good reason for him for pushing the deal pro-actively and he indirectly hinted that in the media. This is serving him a lot of good purpose—because now he is more accepted by the left, Sonia is relying more on him for every major decision. He has no good reason to sacrifice this powerful position which is obtained by diplomatic alignment with the lefts. If UPA could win next election, he would surely be the Prime Minister-just because left would ask for it and Sonia trusted him more than anybody else.

Now, tell me why do you expect Mr Mukherjee to be a proactive American friend when he has everything to gain by seating on the deal passively? And that's what he is doing like a seasoned politician.